4 High-Conviction Setups for This Week
High Probability Trades for 9 - 13 February 2026 | Edition 29
After reviewing feedback from several community members, I believe the most appropriate approach is to showcase my performance rather than a P&L.
The latter tends to attract a different type of audience and focuses on dollar value rather than performance-based results. I always preach “think in percentages, not in dollar value,” and this approach aligns much better with those values.
In this way, I keep transparency at all times for everyone, and you can also form an idea of what to expect from this strategy.
To better understand the strategy we are following and not to buy blindly without any context, please read and analyze my strategy carefully:
Right now, these are my positions:
Dear Traders,
As you know from Discord, at this moment I am 92% cash with only one position open in $GEV. Since it showed relative strength lately, I wanted to hold a small position.
I know it’s been a difficult week for everyone. However, these periods are normal, I promise you, if you stick to the process long enough.
If you commit, stay consistent, reduce risk, and follow the strategy, you will become successful; you will become unstoppable. It’s just a matter of time.
Remember: capital preservation is the first form of profit.
The greatest fortunes in trading aren’t made by being in the market at all times, but by being ready to strike when conditions align again. Do not let red days discourage you. You are here for freedom, and freedom is earned through self-mastery.
Weekly Market Direction
If you’ve been staring at your tech watchlist wondering where the buyers went, you aren’t alone. We are seeing a massive changing of the guard right now, and for swing traders, this volatility is exactly where the opportunity hides.
Let’s look at the hard numbers. The market sentiment gauge on our dashboard is sitting dead center at 52 (Neutral). That might seem boring on the surface, but under the hood, there is a violent rotation happening. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite took a beating this week, shedding 1.84%, marking its worst performance since November.
Meanwhile, the “old economy” is roaring back to life. The Dow Jones Industrial Average actually climbed 2.5%, and we saw solid gains in the small-cap Russell 2000.
The catalyst for this shift is a mix of economic data and “AI anxiety.” On one hand, we have fears that big tech is overspending on AI infrastructure without immediate returns, which crushed software stocks recently. On the other hand, the real economy looks surprisingly resilient.
Manufacturing activity just hit a huge milestone with the ISM PMI jumping to 52.6 in January, the first time it has been in expansion territory in a year.
While ADP payrolls disappointed with only 22,000 new jobs, missing the 45,000 forecast by a wide margin, the manufacturing rebound suggests the industrial cycle is turning a corner.
So, what does this mean for our setups next week?
The trend is your friend, but the trend has changed. You can see it in the sector performance charts: Consumer Defensive and Basic Materials are leading the pack, while Communication Services and Tech are lagging significantly.
The “buy the dip” strategy on high-flying tech names might be risky right now as valuations compress. Instead, the smart money is rotating into areas that benefit from a firming industrial economy.
With U.S. job openings sliding to 6.54 million (the lowest since 2020) and layoffs spiking to over 108,000 in January, the Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative is getting complicated. This softens the risk appetite for speculative assets, Bitcoin is down nearly 50% over the last four months.
For the week ahead, don’t force trades in tech just because it’s “cheap” relative to last month. Respect the rotation. Look for setups in industrials, materials, and mid-caps where the relative strength is actually showing up.
Stay nimble and let the price action dictate your risk.
Earnings and Economic Events
This week, the following companies report earnings:
The volatility ramps up Tuesday with Retail Sales, followed by a critical Non-Farm Payrolls report Wednesday and the massive CPI inflation print on Friday.
High Probability Trades
You can find my full watchlist here:
https://www.tradingview.com/watchlists/319948237/
Ticker: FLEX
Flex created this base, but it’s not a clean one; it is very erratic.
As you can observe, the volume dried up and at the same time the price compressed. The earnings results were also good; they raised guidance and beat the estimation.
That price action was also heavily influenced by the general market.
As soon as it will break from that pattern or from that base, I would buy the breakout and set my SL at the LOD.
Ticker: VRT
I like how $VRT looks, but the only problem is that it’s far too close to earnings; so, what I would do is wait for the earnings report and then see how the market reacts.
This is a ticker to put on the watchlist, and if we have a strong enough catalyst, we can wait for a good entry.
Don’t risk buying before, as this thing may gap up or gap down. We don’t gamble here.
Ticker: WULF
But with $WULF, we can play it differently as there are enough days before earnings.
I could front run this move and buy at the open if it opens above all the Moving Average lines.
But if $WULF manages to breakout from the base before earnings, this could announce a much more explosive move later.
If the price action is right, I would open a small position and then add after the breakout from the base.
Also, look how nicely it made lower highs every time it dropped; this tells me accumulation.
Ticker: AEIS
Same with $AEIS, earnings are too close.
So the play here is to wait for earnings and see if they beat the estimation. If the price then pulls back and starts to contract, then we will find a good entry to ride this thing out.
For the moment, keep it on your watchlist.
Other interesting tickers you should keep an eye on:
$LITE, $ASTS, $AG, $RKLB
I like all these tickers, but $LITE, for example, is too overextended right now; however, $RKLB and $ASTS look good for a next leg up, if the general market complies, of course. (Keep an eye on economic events this week, especially on Friday).
Important links to read and understand:
🟢How to define whether a setup is A+, A, or B. (Click here)
I encourage you, if you’re already a PRO member, you can upgrade your membership on the Discord server (at no extra cost) and get access to a fully private server dedicated to PRO members, for networking, trade ideas, insights, and alerts. (I am wayyy more active there than the Substack chat)
Connect PRO account with discord server
P.S.: The email you use on Discord must be the same as the one on Substack.
All the positions I take during the week can be found on the Discord server or in the Freedom Trades private chat.
If you get an error or can’t make it work, message me privately, I might be able to help you out. 🙂
“One trade closer to freedom”
Vladislav