Explosive Stock Movers: Welcome to 2026
High Probability Trades for 5 - 9 January 2026 | Edition 24
This is the current value of my swing trading account.
Attention: since I live in Switzerland, the currency is set in CHF (which means if you convert it to USD, the amount is higher).
To better understand the strategy we are following and not to buy blindly without any context, please read and analyze my strategy carefully:
Right now, these are my positions:
Weekly Market Direction
Dear traders,
I’m writing to you from Paris, excited, while eating a croissant haha.
The first report of 2026.
I was genuinely surprised by the results from our Weekly Market Direction model, because it printed mixed signals.
Even though the S&P 500 closed lower than it opened, our model kept the overall barometer at Neutral. On the short-term trend, the Nasdaq (NDX) moved to Defensive, while the Dow (DJI) flipped to Aggressive. The Russell 2000 (RUT) stayed weak, and gold pushed higher.
Take a look below so you can see exactly what I mean.
While it wasn’t a great day for the S&P 500, high-momentum beta stocks had an incredible session. Names like FLNC (where I also opened a new position if you were paying attention on Discord) jumped 16%, SNDK rose 15%, and ASTS had an explosive move, which I called out on Discord before it took off.
All of that pushed our account up by $6,000 in a single day.
Despite the recent pullback, 2025 closed with double-digit gains for most major indexes, marking the third straight strong year. After runs like this, markets don’t usually roll over immediately, but they do slow down.
Longer-term trends are still pointing higher, but short-term momentum is fragile. The S&P 500 is stuck between defense and offense, which explains the choppy price action and lack of follow-through.
Volatility confirms it, with the VIX around 14.5, below its 50-day average.
Market breadth dropped to 40 (defensive).
That means fewer stocks are pulling their weight. Indexes might look fine, but participation under the surface is thinning.
At the same time, stocks vs. bonds comes in at 28, also defensive. Capital is still hesitant to fully embrace risk.
This combo usually favors patience over aggression.
Sector Performance
Over the last month
Basic Materials and Financials are quietly outperforming.
Industrials and Energy remain constructive.
Real Estate and Utilities are still lagging.
For most of this 2025 bull market, returns have been extremely concentrated.
U.S. mega-cap tech has dominated everything. Over the past three years, the so-called Magnificent Seven surged with 325%, leaving the broader S&P 500 (80% gain), small caps, and international markets far behind.
AI-driven earnings growth and strong U.S. economic momentum pulled global capital toward American equities and pushed the dollar higher, widening the performance gap even more.
In 2026 All eleven S&P 500 sectors are expected to grow, and while technology should still lead, the advantage is shrinking. Financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials are now projected to deliver double-digit earnings growth as well.
Outside the U.S., the shift is even clearer.
The growth gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world has largely closed. Economic activity overseas has improved while U.S. growth has cooled slightly from its peak. As a result, earnings expectations for international markets are set to rebound meaningfully in 2026, with Europe, the U.K., Japan, and China all showing stronger profit growth than last year.
High Probability Trades
Last week I added FLNC to the high-probability trades list, and I opened a position as soon as it broke out of that range.
Right now the position is already up 8% unrealized, and if we get a strong daily close, I’m expecting a retest of the $26 level.
Now let’s see which names should be on our watchlist for potential trades next week.
You can find my full watchlist here: https://www.tradingview.com/watchlists/315064918/
Ticker: NXE
A breakout from a range, with compressed price action over the last seven trading days, and higher relative volume when the breakout happened.
Ideally, you would’ve entered on Friday when I shared the chart with you on Discord. But if it opens strong, you can still take the trade, with a stop below Friday’s opening low.
Ticker: RDDT
Reddit looks like it could be gearing up for another attempt at its all-time high around the $280 level. It’s been consolidating in this range since November 28, holding the $220–$240 zone extremely well, even while the market for high-beta stocks has been trending lower. That tells me this could be a strong stock in the near term.
Ticker: META
Meta could create a new add-on opportunity if it manages to break above the $680 level. If I were you, I’d set an alert at $680.
As you already know, I’m currently in a META trade, and I’m not rushing it because it’s one of the safer setups out there. Patience should do the job here, especially since it’s a low-ADR stock.
Ticker: SITM
Same setup. If it breaks out above the $390 level, that’s the entry.
That said, I wouldn’t go in with a large position on this one. I’d keep it smaller because it’s a bit extended from the 200-day SMA.
Ticker: QBTS
Volume is picking up, and it has built a clean base. This could be a great entry if it can reclaim the $30 level, especially since it’s printing higher lows and higher highs.
If it retests the $46 area, that implies roughly 65% upside from here. This is a high-risk, high-reward setup because the stock moves fast. But with a strong enough catalyst, we could see some very solid gains.
Other interesting tickers you should keep an eye on:
SOC, RDW, NVTS, BBAI, SOFI, ONDS, SNDK, FLNC
Important links to read and understand:
🟢How to define whether a setup is A+, A, or B. (Click here)
Context
Check the chart watermark to identify the analysis timeframe.
The gray/blue zone marks support and resistance.
The slim blue lines are trend lines
The moving averages used are 200 EMA, 50 EMA, 20 EMA, and 10 EMA.
The 200 EMA is the most important for trend direction.
The 10 EMA is used for exits, if you are in profit and the price closes below the 10 EMA on a daily close, exit the position. (wait for EOD before closing)
You are free to choose/decide when to take profits, but the most important is to place your stop loss at -10% (from entry price / avg price if you dont enter with full size).
For an A+ setup, you can extend it to -15%, but never let a position go beyond that.
Important: That 15% refers to your position size, not your total capital. You should never risk more than 3% of your total capital on any single trade.
I encourage you, if you’re already a PRO member, you can upgrade your membership on the Discord server (at no extra cost) and get access to a fully private server dedicated to PRO members, for networking, trade ideas, insights, and alerts.
Connect PRO account with discord server
P.S.: The email you use on Discord must be the same as the one on Substack.
All the positions I take during the week can be found on the Discord server or in the Freedom Trades private chat.
If you get an error or can’t make it work, message me privately, I might be able to help you out. 🙂
“One trade closer to freedom”
Vladislav