High Probability Trades before the Christmas Rally
High Probability Trades for 1-5 December 2025 | Edition 19
This is the current value of my swing trading account.
Attention: since I live in Switzerland, the currency is set in CHF (which means if you convert it to USD, the amount is higher).
To better understand the strategy we are following and not to buy blindly without any context, please read and analyze my strategy carefully:
All the positions I take during the week can be found on the Discord server or in the Freedom Trades private chat.
Right now, these are my positions:
Hello traders,
Starting today, we’re kicking things off with the Weekly Market Direction so we can see what the data is actually telling us and where we’re heading next.
Last week the indicator was sitting at 21.
One week later, it’s moved to 61.
Meanwhile, if you look at CNN’s Fear and Greed Index, you’ll see it sitting at 24, flashing extreme fear.
The indicator we built is far more aligned with swing trading and short term rotation than CNN’s version, which is built for a broader, slower market read.
The model is printing a 63 reading, which tells you something subtle: the market isn’t in a “manic phase”, but buyers still have control.
This is the kind of regime where pullbacks get bought quickly because participants expect higher prices, not because they’re euphoric, but because the risk environment is still cooperative.
Exposure at 70 to 90 percent makes sense here.
And I genuinely believe this is a good moment to add positions, which is exactly what I did this week.
That’s why I added four new positions: NBIS, NFLX, META, and DUOL.
Volatility is low, liquidity is stable, and trend alignment across timeframes reduces the probability of sharp, trend-breaking reversals.
SPX’s structure is clean. Short, medium, and long term trend signals are synchronized, which is usually profitable.
Breadth is sitting at 40. That means fewer stocks are doing the heavy lifting. A market can advance on narrow leadership for a while, but it becomes fragile. Not immediately bearish, just more sensitive to negative catalysts.
Stocks vs bonds is also at 40. When equities outrun bonds decisively, it shows confidence in future growth. When the gap tightens like this, it tells you investors aren’t fully convinced. They’re participating, but they’re hedging the conviction with caution.
VIX at 16.35 (aggressive 70) doesn’t mean volatility is high. The VIX is exactly where you want it heading into December, the holiday season, and a potential Christmas rally.
Sector flows are showing a quiet rotation. Materials, healthcare, defensives, and cyclical names are taking in capital while tech cools off.
But I actually think this is the moment to rotate back into tech.
Last week tech picked up momentum with a 4.68 percent move.
In my opinion the trend is healthy, if breadth improves, this trend can extend far longer than people expect.
High Probability Trades
Ticker: META
Setup Score: 95 / 100 🟢 AA+ Setup
Since November 9, I’ve been talking about META and the possibility of a clean trade setup.
And here we are, already sitting on an 8% gain.
I honestly hope some of you took this trade because it was the cleanest and the second highest-probability setup of the entire year!!!
As you can see, it broke the previous top at 635 dollars and pushed into higher highs.
The next moment to enter or add to the position will be when it comes back to retest the low.
This is one of those trades where there’s simply no reason to sell, because it will most likely keep performing into next year. If I were to buy contracts, I’d probably go with an end-of-2026 expiration, in the money, and let the momentum do the work.
No need to get fancy here.
And a reminder for anyone who’s new:
When one of the MEG7 names pulls back more than 20 percent during a bull market, keep your eyes on it. It’s one of the most reliable high-probability setups you’ll ever get.
Ticker: NFLX
Setup Score: 85 / 100 🟢 A Setup
Another name that looks poised to move higher is Netflix. It’s been sitting in a falling wedge since June, and after almost six months, it looks ready to retest the previous top, especially with the colder season coming and Netflix’s strong seasonality during this period.
Because the ADR is small, this is the kind of trade you hold into February or March, but you can accelerate it with leverage or options if you want more juice.
If you haven’t entered a position yet, I’d wait to see whether it prints fresh lows or breaks above that previous high at 108 dollars and closes with strength.
Ticker: AMD
Setup Score: 80 / 100 🟢 A Setup
The reason I didn’t classify AMD as an AAA++ setup is that lately there’s been growing chatter that major companies like META may start developing their own AI chips. These are only rumors for now, but if they move in that direction, it reduces their dependence on NVDA and AMD and cuts into both companies’ share of the pie.
Ticker: NBIS
Setup Score: 75 / 100 🟢 B Setup
I’m extremely bullish on NBIS, and I’ve already laid out the reasons in previous editions and on Discord. I think we could easily see NBIS in the 140 to 160 range next year.
This week I’ve added 200 shares to my portfolio.
Ticker: RDDT
Setup Score: 70 / 100 🟢 B Setup
Just like NBIS, Reddit is trying to break out of this falling wedge. It’s a slightly riskier setup because you need a clean breakout to sustain the move, otherwise it will come back to retest the 200 SMA at 165 dollars. But if that happens, I’ll gladly add to my position because I’m convinced this company will end up in the SP500 at some point.
Possibly even next year if the market keeps moving like this. And looking further out, I can easily see a future where Reddit reaches 1000 dollars.
A quick but important note:
Right now I’m seeing dozens of opportunities and clean setups.
(ASTS, BBAI, PLTR, IONQ, CLSK, EXK, APP just to name a few…)
Everyone who built watchlists over the past weeks using the strategy: revisit those watchlists.
There are so many hidden opportunities sitting right there.
Every sector that dropped 30 to 40 percent is now sitting on key levels. Semiconductors, energy, AI data centers, minerals. Every major theme from this year is trading at a discount.
Go back through the strategy and the selection criteria, and if you see a valid setup it’s your moral duty as a trader to take it.
I want you to screenshot the opportunity and share it on Discord with the reason you think it’s valid. I’ll look at it, and so will the other smart traders in the community, and we’ll review it together.
We get stronger together, and we grow by learning from one another.
Important links to read and understand:
🟢How to define whether a setup is A+, A, or B. (Click here)
Soon I will add more to this category..
Context
Check the chart watermark to identify the analysis timeframe.
The gray/blue zone marks support and resistance.
The slim blue lines are trend lines
The moving averages used are 200 EMA, 50 EMA, 20 EMA, and 10 EMA.
The 200 EMA is the most important for trend direction.
The 10 EMA is used for exits, if you are in profit and the price closes below the 10 EMA on a daily close, exit the position. (wait for EOD before closing)
You are free to choose/decide when to take profits, but the most important is to place your stop loss at -10% (from entry price / avg price if you dont enter with full size).
For an A+ setup, you can extend it to -15%, but never let a position go beyond that.
Important: That 15% refers to your position size, not your total capital. You should never risk more than 3% of your total capital on any single trade.
I encourage you, if you’re already a PRO member, you can upgrade your membership on the Discord server (at no extra cost) and get access to a fully private server dedicated to PRO members, for networking, trade ideas, insights, and alerts.
Connect PRO account with discord server
P.S.: The email you use on Discord must be the same as the one on Substack.
If you get an error or can’t make it work, message me privately, I might be able to help you out. 🙂
“One trade closer to freedom”
Vladislav