High Probability Trades for 16 - 20 March 2026
Extreme Fear is Here | Edition 34
This is my performance for this year up to March 14, 2026.
This is my performance from previous years.
To better understand the strategy we are following and not to buy blindly without any context, please read and analyze my strategy carefully:
Right now, these are my positions:
Weekly Market Direction
We’ve just closed out our third straight losing week, and I’m not going to sugarcoat it: the air is thick with uncertainty. Between the escalating conflict in Iran and wild swings in the energy pits, the “Freedom Trades” community is facing a real test of discipline.
Market Sentiment
Our Market Sentiment gauge has ticked down even further to 17 (Extreme Fear). We are officially in the “red zone,” and my stance remains firm: Cash is king, full protection mode is on.
VIX Volatility: The “fear gauge” is holding steady at 20, keeping us well into “Extreme Fear” territory as markets struggle to price in the duration of the Middle East disruptions.
The Trend: It’s almost a total blackout on the dashboard. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq are both in confirmed “Down” trends for the short and medium term.
Breadth Decay: Friday was another rough one, with 394 stocks hitting new lows against only 174 new highs. We now have over 1,300 stocks down 25% or more in the last quarter.
The Energy Squeeze & Inflation
Oil is the only story that mattered this week. WTI crude futures flirted with $110 per barrel before settling back near $97. While the White House and the IEA are trying to cool things down with a massive 400-million-barrel reserve release, prices are still 45% above pre-conflict levels.
This spike is starting to bleed into the data:
Core PCE: The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge hit 3.1%, the highest since early 2024.
GDP Growth: The economy grew at a revised annual rate of just 0.7% in Q4, down from the initial 1.4% estimate.
We are seeing a clear “Dilemma for the Fed”. With the FOMC meeting this Wednesday, the market has virtually wiped out hopes for aggressive rate cuts this year. We’re now looking at maybe one single 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026.
Sector Performance
1-Week Winners: Energy (+3.39%) and Utilities (+1.02%) were the only green spots on the map.
1-Week Losers: Financials (-3.39%) and Basic Materials (-3.42%) got hammered, while Technology (-0.72%) showed some relative (but cold) comfort.
Despite the chaos, S&P 500 earnings are still projected to grow 15% this year, and tax refunds are running 9% higher than last year, which gives the US consumer a much-needed buffer.
My Take: We are in a “patient” market. The Fed isn’t going to rescue us this Wednesday, they are going to wait and see if this energy spike is a “temporary headwind” or a permanent anchor.
Recommended Action:
Stay Cash
Entry Points: Don’t FOMO into the oil rip, but look for high-quality setups.
Earnings and Economic Events
This week, the following companies report earnings:
The economic calendar is concentrated on Wednesday, March 18th, with morning PPI data followed by the Fed’s interest rate decision and economic projections.
Aside from these high-impact events, the rest of the week is completely clear of major economic reports.
High Probability Trades
You can find my full watchlist here:
https://www.tradingview.com/watchlists/324241010/
Even though the S&P 500 is in a full-on decline, it seems to me that more and more setups have been forming this week, and we might have some excellent opportunities once the market becomes more favorable.
Ticker: NBIS
Classic EP, formed a base of approximately 4 months in which volume was in decline, and finally broke out with a catalyst: “Nvidia to invest $2 Billion in Nebius to expand AI Cloud Infrastructure.”
I already bought exactly on the second day after they announced this; however, the setup is still perfectly valid with potential for a multi-day runner. Once the market becomes more favorable, it will get help from the sector as well.
SL is at $104; if it loses that level, the thesis becomes invalid.
Ticker: FIGS
Perfect EP setup for FIGS. With higher sales growth and revenue after the earnings report, FIGS managed to rise by 24% with the highest volume year bar registered after earnings.
If we manage to get a compression into the 20MA, the stock could form a perfect high tight flag setup which, combined with the EP, will give us the chance for a high probability trade. Furthermore, the fact that it is not too extended from the 50MA makes it ideal (only 3.47 multiple).
The only problem I see is the fact that the Avg $ Vol of this stock is only $51 Mil, which puts it in the category of stocks that are not as liquid, making it difficult for large funds and big money to enter such names.
However, the closer it gets to the price of $14.30, the tighter our stop can be, allowing us to capitalize on this opportunity.
I will announce on Discord the moment I enter.
Ticker: CRGY or RIG
CRGY has a one-year base already, moving within a range, and on February 25th, it broke out on its earnings report.
Now it is forming a new mini-base, the range is becoming tighter, and volume is declining. For example, on Friday, even though the market was in a decline, CRGY showed very good relative strength as it is in a hot sector right now: Integrated Oil.
What I don’t like at the moment is the fact that it is at a 4.79 Multiple from 50MA, so it looks a bit extended. Ideally, it should create more tightness, and then give us an opportunity to enter.
Ticker: RKLB
Look at how perfectly RKLB is setting up for a move. The price is becoming tighter and tighter, while at the same time, volume is in decline.
Set a price alert either at the higher range for a long, or at a lower range for a short. Either way, I think the move could be explosive for RKLB.
Other interesting tickers you should keep an eye on:
TWLO, VSAT, RRX, BE, INTC. SNDK
I encourage you, if you’re already a PRO member, you can upgrade your membership on the Discord server (at no extra cost) and get access to a fully private server dedicated to PRO members, for networking, trade ideas, insights, and alerts. (I am wayyy more active there than the Substack chat)
Connect PRO account with discord server
P.S.: The email you use on Discord must be the same as the one on Substack.
Please be aware that there are scammers impersonating me. Remember that I will never contact you personally, nor will I ask you to sign up with different brokers/extra services. Never share any personal information!! Please stay safe. Always double check or ask in the public chat if you are not sure that it is me or if a link is safe.
All the positions I take during the week can be found on the Discord server or in the Freedom Trades private chat.
“One trade closer to freedom”
Vladislav