High Probability Trades for 23 - 27 March 2026
The "Midterm Curse" | Edition 35
This is my performance for this year up to March 21, 2026.
This is my performance from previous years.
To better understand the strategy we are following and not to buy blindly without any context, please read and analyze my strategy carefully:
Right now, these are my positions:
Weekly Market Direction
We just wrapped up another volatile week, and the charts are telling a very clear story: the “Extreme Fear” has officially dug in its heels.
Between geopolitical flares in the Middle East and a Fed that’s looking more hawkish than we’d like, the market is in a full defensive mode.
Here is exactly where we stand as of March 21, 2026.
Our Market Sentiment gauge has plunged to 11 (Extreme Fear). This isn’t the time for heroics. The recommended strategy is Stay Cash.
Breadth Decay: On Friday, March 20, we saw a staggering 662 stocks down 4% or more, while only 146 managed to stay green.
We now have 1,572 stocks down at least 25% over the last three months.
VIX and Trend: The VIX is sitting at 26.77, and the short-term trend for the SPY, DJIA, and IWM is firmly Down/Red.
The Macro Mess: Inflation Acceleration & Fed Caution
The Federal Reserve met this week and, as expected, kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. However, the tone shifted. Fed Chair Jerome Powell specifically warned that the energy shock from the Middle East “can cause trouble for inflation expectations”.
The data backs up that concern:
PPI Spike: February Producer Price Index (PPI) growth accelerated to 0.7% for the month, bringing the annual rate to 3.4%, the highest we’ve seen since July 2025.
Yields Climbing: The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.38% as investors priced in “higher for longer” inflation.
GDP & Housing: Q4 GDP was revised down to a measly 0.7%, and new home sales in January hit their lowest level since 2022.
Sector Performance: Energy is the Only Lifeboat
If you aren’t in Energy right now, you’re likely underwater.
1-Week Winner: Energy (+4.34%) was the only sector in the green this week as WTI crude climbed toward $100.
1-Week Losers: Basic Materials (-7.36%) and Real Estate (-3.90%) were the biggest laggards, while Technology (-1.8%) and Financials (-0.4%) also finished in the red.
Recommendation
We are officially in a 5% pullback for the S&P 500 this year, triggered by the largest disruption to global oil markets on record. While we aren’t in a 1970s-style stagflation yet, thanks to a US economy that is 70% less oil-intensive than it was back then, the short-term path remains rocky.
My Take: The “Extreme Fear” reading of 11 is a signal to stop looking for a bottom and start focusing on capital preservation.
Until the VIX cools off and we see some green shoots in the breadth data, I’m staying defensive.
Earnings and Economic Events
This week, the following companies report earnings:
There are no high-impact economic reports scheduled for next week.
High Probability Trades
You can find my full watchlist here:
https://www.tradingview.com/watchlists/324967730/
Before I show you these tickers that I consider high probability trades, I want to tell you that they come with a warning.
Specifically, all of these are valid only if we see an improvement in the current environment. What I am writing below does not mean you should buy at the open on Monday. However, it also doesn’t mean you should stay completely disconnected from the market. Yes, the smartest move right now is to stay in cash, not even to short.
I say this as I have my reasons for believing that this will be a choppy market. Just as I shared these charts with you this week:
Pre-election uncertainty historically drags the $SPX down to roughly -1.5% by mid-summer, heavily underperforming the steady +9.5% climb seen in non-election years before finally turning positive in late October.
Here is some interesting data:
Brace for the chop, because midterm market volatility reliably spikes late in the year, peaking at a 19.9 annualized standard deviation in October compared to just 12.3 in normal years.
But the good news is The S&P 500 historically rips for a 15.4% average return in the 12 months following a midterm.
Nearly double the 7.8% average of all other years.
So, midterm election years are notoriously choppy.
Keep an eye on these tickers once the market shows signs of improvement.
Ticker: NBIS
Currently, our position is in profit, however, due to a new headline, when $NBIS announced that they plan to raise about $3.75 billion in convertible debt, the market was forced to reprice the ticker, and the reaction was negative, down -10%.
If NBIS 0.00%↑ manages to hold this price by forming a base for at least a week or two, combined with price contraction and a decline in volume, it might offer us an opportunity to add to our position.
My SL right now is at breakeven $110. If this price is hit, I will be forced to exit the position and reassess the setup.
Also, do not forget the environment we are in.
Ticker: AMPX
Although the market has been terrible over the last week, look at the Relative Strength $AMPX has shown. Moreover, they even managed to gain 1% this week.
Despite missing earnings expectations, the market reaction was positive, and the ticker had a breakout from the prior high on the highest volume bar of the year.
Now, volume is declining while the price is contracting, exactly what we want to see.
A bonus would be if this consolidation continues into next week, allowing the 50MA to catch up to the price. As you can observe, at this moment the ATR% multiple from 50MA is 5.57, which means the price is quite overextended from the 50.
Don’t forget that we prefer to buy a stock that is a maximum 4x multiple extended from the 50.
Nevertheless, keep an eye on this ticker over the next few days..
Ticker: BE
$BE looks to me at the moment like a better short than long, as volume is rising on every red day and declining on green days. This is not a good sign for a ticker looking to breakout from a base it has been forming since January 15, already 3 months in the making.
As you can observe, over the last 5 days, the price went through a contraction, followed by an expansion over the last 2 days due to market volatility.
Thursday had great price action and a very strong close, but the only missing ingredient was volume. That volume finally arrived the next day, but it was on a red day. That’s not a positive sign.
This also happened due to the sector it belongs to, $XLK, but that wouldn’t have mattered if it had shown Relative Strength, which was not the case.
For now, $BE looks like a short, but if the environment changes, we might see a shift in sentiment. Keep it on your watchlist.
Ticker: AMD
I like $AMD for several reasons.
It is showing Relative Strength compared to the sector. While $XLK dropped 1.95% on Friday, $AMD only fell 1.92%; for such a high beta stock, 1.92% is peanuts.
Additionally, volume is declining while the price is compressing. Furthermore, the stock price is at a psychological level of $200 and is currently sitting at the 200MA. On March 9, it reached that level and staged an excellent bounce on volume.
$AMD has also created a base that it has been respecting since February 4, nearly 2 months already. $AMD needs to fill that overnight gap formed on February 4 between $220 and $235.
When the market turns back in our favor, that will be the time to buy $AMD.
Other interesting tickers you should keep an eye on:
KRMN (after 25th March - earnings report), RKLB, IREN, TWLO
I encourage you, if you’re already a PRO member, you can upgrade your membership on the Discord server (at no extra cost) and get access to a fully private server dedicated to PRO members, for networking, trade ideas, insights, and alerts. (I am wayyy more active there than the Substack chat)
Connect PRO account with discord server
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All the positions I take during the week can be found on the Discord server or in the Freedom Trades private chat.
“One trade closer to freedom”
Vladislav