High Probability Trades for Week 47, 2025
24 - 28 November 2025 | Edition 18
This is the current value of my swing trading account.
Attention: since I live in Switzerland, the currency is set in CHF (which means if you convert it to USD, the amount is higher).
To better understand the strategy we are following and not to buy blindly without any context, please read and analyze my strategy carefully:
All the positions I take during the week can be found on the Discord server or in the Freedom Trades private chat.
Right now, these are my positions:
Hello traders,
I want to start with some good news, specifically,
TradingView has now made it possible for you to copy my Screener without setting it up manually,
You can do that by accessing this link:
Also, you can copy the way my chart looks and the indicators by accessing this link:
If you need help, please write to me.
All the indicators I use + settings
1. WMT Stats V2
This one is the most important one, it tells me whether a stock is suitable or not for my strategy. It basically helps me with stock selection, and as we know, that is the second most important thing in swing trading.
These are the settings I use for the indicators.
The most important ones here are:
ADR – If it’s lower than 5% you’ll probably have to stay in that trade for many months just to get around 20%. If it’s higher than 5% that means the stock moves fast, and we need volatility to grow our accounts.
$VOL – This is the dollar volume. If you see $VOL higher than 500M, that means institutions (aka smart money) are involved.
100–300M – usually small funds or retail traders
50M or less – heavy manipulation, retail noise
Then, on days when there is a strong catalyst, you want to see RVOL% at least 100%.
This is closely tied to the volume indicator. It’s important to always keep an eye on volume to see how the stock reacts to catalysts or key levels.
Remember ADR%, $VOL, and RVOL are the most important.
2. Moving Averages
These are the settings I use.
So I’m only interested in the 10 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, and 200 SMA.
I chose these because they are the most used by traders, institutions, etc.
The 10 EMA tells me when I need to exit a position (if it closes below it at the end of the day), or it tells me when I should trim the position.
The 21 EMA tells me the short term trend (daily).
The 50 SMA tells me the medium term trend (weekly).
The 200 SMA tells me the long term trend (monthly).
Other indicators (optional)
Before I show you these, I want to tell you that this is it. This is all you need, three main indicators, Moving Averages (to identify the trend), WMT (for stock selection), and Volume.
That’s it, the rest is price action, the most important indicator is PRICE,
And to correctly identify price action, you need experience, nothing beats that. With experience you’ll develop something called situational awareness, which will make you profitable.
RSI
With that being said, I also use RSI, but it carries very little weight in the decisions I make. I look at it and take it into consideration only when I see that on the weekly or monthly it’s overbought, that’s when I try to be careful with my position sizing.
Or when it’s oversold, especially for mega caps, it gives me more confidence that the trade is a good one.
VWAP
VWAP shows me the volume weighted average price of the day, helping me see whether the market is trading “expensive” or “cheap” compared to the real flow of volume.
Sometimes I use it for entries, but again, it carries very little weight in my decision making.
The perfect recipe is:
I’m going to add all this text to the main strategy post.
Please implement everything I’ve written, and if you have any questions, message me on the Discord server.
Weekly Market Direction
As I promised, this week we have an Alpha version of the Market Direction model.
The reason I chose to go the coding route instead of creating a simple Photoshop image is because I want this Market Direction to be mechanical, based on actual metrics that calculate the final result.
Otherwise, it becomes biased, and every week I would end up fighting with my own bias. That would hurt both me and you.
I also haven’t found the perfect name for it yet… Market Direction Scorecard? Market Pulse? What should we call it, guys?
Without further delay, here is version 1.0.
Now, to make it even better, I need your feedback.
I’m already aware of a few bugs that need to be fixed.
I don’t want to make this post too long, but if you’d like details about how the GAUGE is calculated, I’ll gladly explain it on Discord.
High Probability Trades
As the Weekly Market Direction shows, it’s time to stay defensive, which is why I’m not jumping into positions with full buying power.
But I did open a starter position in META and Netflix this week.
I want to show you in more detail what my positioning plan is for the META trade.
All of this is based on the assumption that META could drop a maximum of another 20% from current levels.
That would be a 40% drop from the all-time high, which would make it the 4th biggest correction since 2012.
The probability is low, but it can happen.
To mitigate the risk, I built this model together with Ai to optimize my position sizing.
Assuming the main support is around 475,
this is my adding plan on the way down, which would give me an average cost of around 533 (which I consider a very good price).
So this represents my worst-case scenario.
I already bought 40 META shares at an average price of 598, so that means the calculations are a bit off and I need to increase my position size.
Of course, this is just a framework. Real market conditions will always look different. But what I want to show you here is the level of planning you need to do before entering a major position in your trading account.
If the price goes up instead, that’s even better, I will simply add on the way up.
Let’s see what happens.
Ticker: NFLX
As for Netflix, I really don’t like how it closed on Friday. It broke below the falling wedge and the previous top level. If it fails to reclaim that level and drops under 100, we could easily see Netflix at 83 a level I’m not willing to sit through. If that happens, I’ll consider closing the position and waiting for a better setup.
It’s crucial that next week we trade inside a range and avoid printing fresh lows. That would give us some hope for a solid December and a proper Christmas rally. The way we close this month matters a lot.
Because of the platform (Substack / Email), I’m limited to 1500 words and it’s telling me the post is too long, so instead of adding charts, I’ll just list the other tickers I find interesting. I’ll share the charts on Discord during the week. Other interesting tickers I’m watching are: PLTR, NBIS, DUOL, RDDT.
Important links to read and understand:
🟢How to define whether a setup is A+, A, or B. (Click here)
Soon I will add more to this category..
Context
Check the chart watermark to identify the analysis timeframe.
The gray/blue zone marks support and resistance.
The slim blue lines are trend lines
The moving averages used are 200 EMA, 50 EMA, 20 EMA, and 10 EMA.
The 200 EMA is the most important for trend direction.
The 10 EMA is used for exits, if you are in profit and the price closes below the 10 EMA on a daily close, exit the position. (wait for EOD before closing)
You are free to choose/decide when to take profits, but the most important is to place your stop loss at -10% (from entry price / avg price if you dont enter with full size).
For an A+ setup, you can extend it to -15%, but never let a position go beyond that.
Important: That 15% refers to your position size, not your total capital. You should never risk more than 3% of your total capital on any single trade.
I encourage you, if you’re already a PRO member, you can upgrade your membership on the Discord server (at no extra cost) and get access to a fully private server dedicated to PRO members, for networking, trade ideas, insights, and alerts.
Connect PRO account with discord server
P.S.: The email you use on Discord must be the same as the one on Substack.
If you get an error or can’t make it work, message me privately, I might be able to help you out. 🙂
“One trade closer to freedom”
Vladislav