High-Probability Trades to Grow Your Account
High Probability Trades for 19 - 23 January 2026 | Edition 26
This is the current value of my swing trading account.
Attention: since I live in Switzerland, the currency is set in CHF (which means if you convert it to USD, the amount is higher).
To better understand the strategy we are following and not to buy blindly without any context, please read and analyze my strategy carefully:
Right now, these are my positions:
Weekly Market Direction
Dear traders,
This week something pretty special happened: our swing trading account reached new all-time highs again, after almost two and a half months of drawdown and choppy price action. I’ll probably write more about this in Sunday’s newsletter.
I hope you made some good money this week, because I personally know that some of our subscribers took a few trades and walked away with some nice profits.
Now, let’s talk about weekly market direction.
I’ve improved the model by adding a Market Breadth table that shows the last three trading weeks, including how many stocks are up more than 4% and how many are down more than 4%, out of a total universe of 6,297 listed stocks.
This gives us a much clearer picture of whether it’s time to push aggressively or stay more defensive.
I’ll share this in Discord, where you can check the table daily for free.
(Just ask me about it, let’s see who’s paying attention and actually reading this 😄)
The model is at 70 (Aggressive). The play is simple: 70% to 90% exposure, with controlled leverage if you know what you’re doing.
The trend is still clean. SPX is bullish on short, medium, and long-term, and that matters more than the daily drama.
This week the Russell 2000 closed at 2,677.74 and is up 7.89% YTD. The S&P MidCap 400 is up 6.07% YTD. Meanwhile S&P 500 is up 1.38% YTD and Nasdaq is up 1.18% YTD. That is rotation, not weakness.
Also I mentioned yesterday that “ Small Caps (Russell 2000) are on track to outperform Large Caps (S&P 500) for the 11th day in a row, Longest streak since 2008.”
Volatility is not screaming danger. VIX is 15.86, and my vol read is 51 (Neutral).
Breadth is improving. the last few sessions show buyers showing up:
On 1/14 we had 308 stocks up 4%+ vs 155 down 4%+.
On 1/15 it was 288 up vs 190 down.
On 1/16 it was 232 up vs 205 down.
Risk appetite is clearly on. Stocks vs bonds (200d) is +3.37%, and that gauge is 90 (Extreme Greed). That’s great for swing trading, but it also means you do not get sloppy.
Fundamentals still back this up. Energy is a tailwind with WTI around $60 and gas around $3.35. Inflation is not re-accelerating: headline CPI 2.7%, core 2.6%.
Growth has been solid with GDP 3.8% in Q2 and 4.3% in Q3, and Q4 was tracking 2%+.
On top of that, there’s a potential demand boost from $100B to $150B in extra tax refunds. Earnings are also doing the heavy lifting: the S&P is lined up for a 10th straight quarter of profit growth, with Q4 earnings seen up ~8%, and 2026 EPS growth near 15% with all 11 sectors expected to contribute.
So my direction is bullish, but disciplined. I’m treating pullbacks as entries while breadth stays net-positive and SPX trend stays up.
this is a market where pressing makes sense.
High Probability Trades
You can find my full watchlist here:
https://www.tradingview.com/watchlists/316910601/
As always, please keep an eye on Discord, as I call these out in real time as they unfold.
The most important time of the day is the first hour after the market opens. That’s what my stats show, around 70% of breakouts happen in the first 30 minutes.
After that, I usually avoid opening new positions and focus only on managing the ones I already have.
Ticker: CIFR
This is a bullish consolidation after a strong uptrend. Price already proved demand with a clean impulse leg, and since then it’s been digesting gains inside a tight triangle.
The structure is healthy. We’re seeing higher lows, compressed candles, and price holding above the 20 and 50 MAs, which are starting to curl up again. That tells me sellers are weak and dips keep getting bought.
The 200 MA is well below price and rising, so the bigger trend is still intact.
Relative volume is improving into the compression.
Key level is clear. A clean break above the triangle resistance with volume should trigger the next leg higher. Risk is defined and simple: stop at LOD.
Let this trade come to you, don’t force it.
Ticker: APLD
I think the earnings report was a solid catalyst for APLD, and price action seems to confirm that. Momentum looks strong, and I believe it has a good chance of breaking above the previous high.
I’ve already opened a position after spotting a small higher-timeframe setup forming on the daily chart.
Please take the time to study the chart as well.
Ticker: IONQ and RGTI
This is a decision pattern. It’s not automatically bullish or bearish, we need to let the market decide the direction. If relative volume expands and price holds above the 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages, then we can take the position.
Between the two, I think IONQ is the safer bet, mainly because it has a larger market cap and stronger institutional demand compared to RGTI.
RGTI does offer better upside potential, but it also comes with a higher risk of a failed breakout.
Regardless of which one you choose, place your stop loss at the low of the day (LOD) and set a price alert exactly at the pattern breakout level. Control the risk!
Ticker: ALAB
As you can see, this stock has been printing higher lows over the past few weeks, and I think ALAB is well positioned heading into its earnings on February 10.
I may have entered a bit early due to that bounce and price rejection, but I’ve set an alert at $188 and placed my stop at the low of the day (LOD).
The platform won’t let me write more since I’ve hit the character limit, but here’s a bit more.
Other interesting tickers you should keep an eye on:
ONDS( HTF Setup if it finds support/bounce at the 20MA), VRT, QBTS, LUMN, CDE
Important links to read and understand:
🟢How to define whether a setup is A+, A, or B. (Click here)
I encourage you, if you’re already a PRO member, you can upgrade your membership on the Discord server (at no extra cost) and get access to a fully private server dedicated to PRO members, for networking, trade ideas, insights, and alerts. (I am wayyy more active there than the Substack chat)
Connect PRO account with discord server
P.S.: The email you use on Discord must be the same as the one on Substack.
All the positions I take during the week can be found on the Discord server or in the Freedom Trades private chat.
If you get an error or can’t make it work, message me privately, I might be able to help you out. 🙂
“One trade closer to freedom”
Vladislav