My High-Probability Watchlist for Next Week
High Probability Trades for 16 - 20 February 2026 | Edition 30
This is my performance for this year up to February 14, 2026.
This is my performance from previous years.
To better understand the strategy we are following and not to buy blindly without any context, please read and analyze my strategy carefully:
Right now, these are my positions:
Dear Traders,
I want to start directly with this ticker because I consider it a good lesson on what is currently happening in the market.
Ticker: LBRT
On January 28, LBRT had its earnings report. They beat the expectation and price jumps 16% on the next day.
Then look at what happens with the price; it starts to stabilize and the volume starts to decrease between February 9 and February 12.
As there is no selling pressure, the bulls are still holding their position and there is minimum selling. The price basically starts forming a mini base. And look what happens on the next day on February 13. Price is breaking out from that with high volume.
Now you could say it was a failed breakout as it faded and gave back 50% of the move.
But I want you to always take into account the context we are in. Namely, one where volatility is high and most of the breaks fade because the general market is choppy.
There is nothing wrong with your trading (as long as you manage your risk), it is simply a very difficult environment to make money.
If I had been in front of the screens on Friday, I most likely would still be holding this position.
I even announced it on Discord, if you remember, before this move happened. Here’s the proof:
That’s why you need to be on Discord. That’s where the most value is, as I call different tickers as they unfold.
That is where the most studious and profitable traders in the community are, where we discuss and learn from each other.
Let’s move forward to the weekly market direction.
Weekly Market Direction
It was a wild week on Wall Street, and not exactly the “fun” kind. If you’ve been feeling like the market is throwing a tantrum, you’re not alone, and the data backs it up. Between a “too-good” jobs report and a sudden bout of AI-induced vertigo, the tape is getting messy.
Here is the breakdown of where we stand and why our strategy remains defensive.
The Freedom Sentiment Gauge: 32 (Fear)
Our internal sentiment gauge has officially slid into the “Fear” zone, currently sitting at 32.
When the needle hits this area, the message is clear: Sit Tight. I recommend a maximum exposure of 0–25%, sticking to setups only, and, most importantly, no leverage.
This is the environment to protect your capital so you’re ready when the tide actually turns.
The Macro Grind: Jobs, Inflation, and the “Warsh” Factor
The big headlines this week were a tale of two economies:
The Jobs Surprise: U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in January, shattering consensus. While a strong labor market sounds great, investors hated it because it dampened hopes for an early rate cut. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, giving the Fed (and soon-to-be Chair Kevin Warsh) plenty of “higher for longer” ammunition.
CPI Cool Down: Friday brought some relief with CPI hitting 2.4% y/y, down from 2.7%. Energy prices are doing the heavy lifting here, but “Core” inflation (housing/services) is still a bit sticky at 2.5%.
The AI Sell-off: The real story was the -2.10% slide in the Nasdaq. We’re seeing a major rotation out of “AI winners” as concerns grow about actual ROI versus the massive Capex spending. It’s no longer enough to just say “AI” in an earnings call; investors want to see the receipts.
The Game Plan for Next Week
The Short-Term (21 EMA) and Medium-Term (50 SMA) trends for the SPY are currently Red.. While the Long-Term trend is still technically holding on, the breadth indicators are shaky.
Bottom Line: The market is in “wait and see” mode. We are staying light, staying patient, and letting the volatility wash out the weak hands. If you aren’t in a high-conviction setup, your best trade right now is likely no trade at all.
Earnings and Economic Events
This week, the following companies report earnings:
Eyes on the calendar for Wednesday's FOMC Minutes and Friday’s Core PCE, these are the heavy hitters.
High Probability Trades
You can find my full watchlist here:
https://www.tradingview.com/watchlists/320814422/
Ticker: CLS
Because breakouts haven’t been working that well lately, we need to adapt to the choppiness; that means we need to find the best possible entry and manage our risk.
For CLS, I want to buy at the market open on the lower range of the base. This allows me to tighten the risk as much as possible.
This means I will set my SL at the break of that base, which is $260. If I get stopped out, so be it, it means it wants to go lower and I am out.
However, if it moves up and breaks from that base at $350, this allows me to pyramid and add to my position.
Ticker: NBIS
NBIS showed great relative strength on Friday compared to its sector. This price action comes immediately after Thursday’s earnings, which in my opinion had mixed results.
How I would play NBIS at Tuesday’s open is to set a SL at the previous low of day, which is $88, and play a small position since the market is unfavorable right now.
If we see that the position is working, we can add on the pullback.
However, one thing is clear: we need to see a strong breakout with volume to confirm that NBIS is ready to show another leg up.
Look at how low the volume was from November 25 to February 11 and how it has started to accelerate. If we continue to see this kind of volume, it could mean accumulation from big money funds.
Other interesting tickers you should keep an eye on:
WULF is attempting to break out at the previous top. I want to see a decrease in volume, the price stabilizing, and then an increase in volume as it tries to break out. Be careful with the fact that earnings are coming up on February 26, don’t get caught up in that.
FLEX, FRMI, VIAV, INTC
As always keep an eye on the discord sever!!
I encourage you, if you’re already a PRO member, you can upgrade your membership on the Discord server (at no extra cost) and get access to a fully private server dedicated to PRO members, for networking, trade ideas, insights, and alerts. (I am wayyy more active there than the Substack chat)
Connect PRO account with discord server
P.S.: The email you use on Discord must be the same as the one on Substack.
All the positions I take during the week can be found on the Discord server or in the Freedom Trades private chat.
If you get an error or can’t make it work, message me privately, I might be able to help you out. 🙂
“One trade closer to freedom”
Vladislav