Oil at $90, Jobs Slumping: Is the Bull Market Officially Dead?
High Probability Trades for 9 - 13 March 2026 | Edition 33
This is my performance for this year up to March 07, 2026.
This is my performance from previous years.
To better understand the strategy we are following and not to buy blindly without any context, please read and analyze my strategy carefully:
Right now, these are my positions:
Weekly Market Direction
Things escalated quickly this week. If you’ve been following the news, the military strikes in Iran have sent shockwaves through the global markets, and we are officially seeing "Extreme Fear" take the wheel.
Our Market Sentiment gauge has plunged to 20 (Extreme Fear). This is a significant drop from last week, and the “Recommended Strategy” has shifted to Cash with full protection mode.
The technicals are screaming caution:
The VIX (Volatility Index) has spiked to 29.90, well above its 50-day moving average.
Short-Term Trend (21 DMA): It’s a sea of red. Everything from the NYSE, Nasdaq, and Small Caps (IWM) is in a confirmed Down trend.
Breadth Breakdown: On Friday alone, we saw 382 stocks hitting new lows compared to just 141 new highs. The number of stocks down 25% or more in the last quarter has surged to 1,188.
The “Stagflation” Scare: Oil Spikes while Jobs Slump
We are facing a “perfect storm” of bad data. Usually, when the economy looks weak, the Fed cuts rates and stocks cheer. But the Middle East conflict has changed the math.
The Oil Shock: Crude prices surged over 30% this week, trading around $90 per barrel. This is driving energy-driven inflation risks, which might tie the Fed’s hands even if the economy slows.
The Payrolls Disaster: Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, Instead of the 60K gain we expected, the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%.
This is the “Stagflation” mix markets hate: rising costs (energy) combined with a cooling labor market.
Sector Performance: Energy is the Only Island
If you weren’t in Energy this week, you likely felt the pain.
1-Week Winner: Energy was the lone survivor, up 7.46% as oil prices ripped higher.
1-Week Losers: It was a bloodbath elsewhere. Basic Materials (-9.06%), Consumer Defensive (-6.39%), and Industrials (-4.65%) led the declines. Even Technology, which held up better than most, still shed 1.42% on the week.
The “risk-off” move is broad. We saw a rare “correlated sell-off” where both stocks and bonds fell together as yields jumped because investors are reassessing inflation risks.
My Take: We are in a period of high geopolitical uncertainty. While history says these shocks are often short-lived, the combination of a negative jobs print and $90 oil is a “Dilemma for the Fed”. They may not be able to rescue the market with rate cuts as quickly as we’d like if gas prices keep heading toward the moon.
Recommended Action: * Tighten Stops.
Hedge: Ensure you have protection in place.
Watch Oil: If WTI clears $100, the recession probability starts climbing toward that 30% mark.
Stay safe out there.
Earnings and Economic Events
This week, the following companies report earnings:
Buckle up for a massive macro week!
The heavy hitters:
Wed (8:30 AM): CPI data. Markets are looking for that 2.5% YoY to hold.
Fri (8:30 AM): PCE, GDP (2nd Est), and JOLTS.
High Probability Trades
You can find my full watchlist here:
https://www.tradingview.com/watchlists/323361638/
Ticker: DELL
Check what I wrote on the chart above.
We need two things to happen on $DELL to initiate a buy.Volume to decrease, especially if the price starts to pull back.
The price to form increasingly smaller ranges on the daily.
And the cherry on top would be for its sector, XLK, to be trending up. This isn’t happening yet, but right now the XLK price is at the 200MA; we might see a bounce from that level, which could help $DELL move in the right direction.
Set a price alert for $DELL above $150 and at 138 and include it in the watchlist. When these criteria mentioned above are met, we will take a position in $DELL.
Ticker: VRT
VRT will be included in the S&P 500 on March 23. This is definitely a positive catalyst, as the stock will benefit from passive buying.
Also, VRT is showing excellent relative strength compared to what has happened in the market over the last few days and within its sector, XLK.
I have also included in the chart an example of what we want to see happen before we buy. We need a contraction in price and a decrease in volume, and then to buy into strength.
If we get an intra-day bar on Monday or Tuesday and then a good reaction on Wednesday to the macro market economic data news, it’s possible that will be our buy signal.
We shall see, but I will definitely be present on the Discord server where I announce everything.
I want to give you more high probability trades, but I scanned hundreds of charts this weekend and, honestly, I don’t see many opportunities right now, maybe a few shorts, but it’s not worth looking for shorts in a bull market, or rather, a choppy market so far, heh.
Other interesting tickers you should keep an eye on:
VG
I encourage you, if you’re already a PRO member, you can upgrade your membership on the Discord server (at no extra cost) and get access to a fully private server dedicated to PRO members, for networking, trade ideas, insights, and alerts. (I am wayyy more active there than the Substack chat)
Connect PRO account with discord server
P.S.: The email you use on Discord must be the same as the one on Substack.
Please be aware that there are scammers impersonating me. Remember that I will never contact you personally, nor will I ask you to sign up with different brokers/extra services. Never share any personal information!! Please stay safe. Always double check or ask in the public chat if you are not sure that it is me or if a link is safe.
All the positions I take during the week can be found on the Discord server or in the Freedom Trades private chat.
“One trade closer to freedom”
Vladislav