I’m Watching These Stocks Before They Explode
High Probability Trades for 12 - 16 January 2026 | Edition 25
This is the current value of my swing trading account.
Attention: since I live in Switzerland, the currency is set in CHF (which means if you convert it to USD, the amount is higher).
To better understand the strategy we are following and not to buy blindly without any context, please read and analyze my strategy carefully:
Right now, these are my positions:
Weekly Market Direction
Dear traders,
To start, I want to remind you that I’ve updated the strategy we follow in this community.
Everything you need is there to finally have a proven model that delivers consistency, a reproducible, systematic workflow designed to make money in the long term.
I strongly recommend reading it carefully.
Here’s the link:
https://www.ft.wtf/p/my-entire-swing-trading-strategy
I also want to make a quick clarification.
Many of you know that over the past few years I’ve been swing trading while working a 9–5.
Starting this year, I’m officially a full-time trader.
This is good news, for me and for you.
Here’s what it means:
I’ll be available at every market open.
The Discord server will be much more active, as I’ll be calling out interesting charts live, as I see them.
And most importantly, I will intentionally increase my trading frequency.
With more time in front of the screen, I’ll be increasing position size while reducing risk per trade by using tighter stop losses.
Naturally, this means I’ll get stopped out more often.
At the same time, it allows me to test more ideas, since risk will stay capped at 1% per trade, just with tighter stops and larger size.
For you, if you prefer a slower swing trading pace, I recommend doing the opposite:
reduce position size and widen your stop loss.
You can play around with this and even backtest different risk approaches.
By now, I hope you’ve realized that the real magic in swing trading is position sizing.
Get that right, and you’ll never blow up an account.
Anyway, before I turn this into a completely different topic, let’s continue with this week’s report and look at our weekly market direction.
Even though the S&P 500 is trading at all-time highs, our weekly market direction indicator is giving mixed signals. Market breadth remains in the fear zone, gold is at all-time highs, the DXY is rising, and bonds have continued to outperform stocks over the past 20 trading days. Investors are still cautious, despite the strength in headline indexes.
Markets started the year strong, but the data underneath is cooling. The S&P 500 gained +1.6%, while the Russell 2000 led with +4.6%, a clear rotation into small caps and value. Breadth improved, but the move is policy-driven and fragile.
Labor is the key signal. December payrolls came in at +50k vs 70k expected, with –76k revisions to October and November. The 2025 average monthly job gain sits at just 49k, down sharply from 168k in 2024. Unemployment dipped to 4.4%, but job openings fell to 7.1M, the lowest since September 2024.
Manufacturing remains weak. ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 47.9, the 10th straight month in contraction. Services are still holding, with the Services PMI hitting the highest level of the year, keeping recession fears contained for now.
Rates reflected that balance. Treasuries posted modest gains, credit spreads stayed tight, and both investment-grade and high-yield bonds held up well. No stress signals yet.
Direction: mildly bullish, but choppy. As long as inflation stays near ~2.7% YoY and credit remains stable, equities can grind higher. The risk is not a crash, it’s slower growth forcing tighter risk management.
Trade it with discipline. Tight stops. Smaller assumptions. This is a positioning market, not a conviction one.
High Probability Trades
You can find my full watchlist here:
https://www.tradingview.com/watchlists/316012064/
Ticker: APLD
What I want to see on APLD around the $40 breakout level is a bit of contraction or a small pullback.
I usually don’t like buying a breakout after 2–3 consecutive green candles with a 10–20% move already in place. I view breakouts as contractions and expansions. Once the move has already happened and price reaches the breakout level, it’s like the stock has already spent a lot of its fuel. The energy to push higher is often reduced.
From my experience, the highest-probability breakouts are the ones that show a green candle first, followed by a small pullback, and then a strong push through the breakout level.
So my recommendation is simple: set a price alert around that level and watch this stock closely.
Ticker: TE
This is a high tight flag setup. After a drawdown of roughly 22%, it can offer a solid entry around the 20-day moving average.
How I would trade it: I’d buy if price opens above $7.18 or manages a clean breakout, with the stop loss set at the previous low of the day.
ATR% is still below 4, which keeps the setup from being overextended.
As with any high tight flag, risk needs to stay relatively small. Don’t let it exceed 10% of the position.
Ticker: SOFI
SoFi looks like it wants to break out of this range. My view is that if it manages to reclaim the 50-day moving average, it could start setting up for another leg higher. Until then, I expect SOFI to remain range-bound.
The likely catalyst will be earnings on January 30. Until then, keep this name on your watchlist, set a few price alerts, and monitor it closely.
Let the trade come to you.
Ticker: EOSE
It doesn’t fully fit my HTF criteria, since the drawdown was larger than I usually like, roughly 40% from the highs. That said, it managed to reclaim the 50-day moving average, and it looks like it wants to break out of this flag. More importantly, it’s doing so with a high-volume bar.
If it behaves well at the Monday open, I may attempt to ride the breakout and place the stop at the low of day.
Other interesting tickers you should keep an eye on:
RIVN, NG, NBIS, IREN
FIG - At the moment, it does not fit our criteria. However, I am convinced we will be able to make a lot of money from FIG at some point, once it proves it can perform. Right now, it is trading within a range that has been in place since November. The factor that could change the stock’s direction is the March earnings report. Until then, I have set a few price alerts and will monitor it closely.
Important links to read and understand:
🟢How to define whether a setup is A+, A, or B. (Click here)
I encourage you, if you’re already a PRO member, you can upgrade your membership on the Discord server (at no extra cost) and get access to a fully private server dedicated to PRO members, for networking, trade ideas, insights, and alerts. (I am wayyy more active there than the Substack chat)
Connect PRO account with discord server
P.S.: The email you use on Discord must be the same as the one on Substack.
All the positions I take during the week can be found on the Discord server or in the Freedom Trades private chat.
If you get an error or can’t make it work, message me privately, I might be able to help you out. 🙂
“One trade closer to freedom”
Vladislav