The Great Software Crash: Are We Nearing a Bottom?
High Probability Trades for 2 - 6 March 2026 | Edition 32
This is my performance for this year up to February 28, 2026.
This is my performance from previous years.
To better understand the strategy we are following and not to buy blindly without any context, please read and analyze my strategy carefully:
Right now, these are my positions:
Dear Traders,
I’ve received questions regarding the situation between Iran, Israel, and the USA. Look, I don’t have experience in geopolitics, and even if I did, it would all be assumptions based on what I think might happen.
I cannot predict what will happen to gold, oil, or which defense stock will shoot up or gap down. Yes, they could close the Strait of Hormuz and oil could explode, but,
Nobody knows these things, at most, maybe an insider. As a matter of fact, all these news stories are just noise. They are meant to confuse you, scare you, and shake you out.
I know it’s a bit controversial, but in my opinion, especially at the beginning, you should do less, not more. In fact, the greatest masters and experts know how to do one thing: focus. They focus on one thing. And my focus is price action.
By now, you’ve probably seen that I rely heavily on price action. I let the market decide if I am going long, short, or staying away. And sometimes, I take the wrong side, and I cut my losses as fast as possible, admitting that I am wrong.
The point is to be wrong small and be right big. This is my philosophy.. it might be controversial to you, but it has paid me very well over the years.
So, what I recommend is to follow the system. don’t try to hit a home run with extra leverage just because you “know” that oil will explode.
As you gain experience, you’ll realize that “outlier” trades are not a reliable statistic to depend on. The most valuable metric is your average, that is what you can rely on: consistency.
Weekly Market Direction
Markets took a bit of a breather this week, and if you’ve been watching the headlines, you know the “AI Anxiety” is hitting a fever pitch. Despite some blowout numbers from the big players, the broader indices felt the weight of some sticky inflation data and a general “risk-off” mood.
The Big Picture: Market Sentiment & Breadth
Our internal Market Sentiment gauge is currently sitting at 31 (Fearful). We’ve seen a noticeable shift from neutral territory as the “AI disruption” narrative starts to bite.
Looking at the Primary Breadth Indicators, the data is a bit of a mixed bag but leans defensive:
The S&P 500 remains the relative “safe haven,” down only 0.44% on the week, while the Dow took harder hits (down 1.31% ).
New Lows are creeping up: We saw 473 stocks hitting new lows on Friday versus only 193 hitting new highs.
Short-Term Trend: Most of our key moving averages (21 DMA) for the major indices and sectors like IWM (Small Caps) are firmly in the “Down” column.
The AI Paradox: Strong Earnings, Weak Price Action
The elephant in the room is NVIDIA. They delivered record revenue and beat expectations yet again, but the market’s reaction, a 6% drop, tells you everything you need to know about current investor psyche.
Economy & Rates: PPI Spikes, Yields Dive
On the macro front, the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hot at 0.5% for January (2.9% annually). Normally, higher-than-expected inflation would send yields soaring. Instead, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since November.
This tells me the bond market is more worried about a potential slowdown or labor market “recalibration” than it is about inflation. When investors dump stocks and buy bonds (driving yields down) despite hot inflation data, they are looking for a “risk-off” shelter.
Sector Performance: The Defensive Rotation
The performance heatmaps show a clear rotation into “Old Economy” and defensive sectors:
1-Week Winners: Basic Materials (+4.33%), Consumer Defensive (+2.4%), and Utilities (+2.1%).
1-Week Losers: Financials (-2.57%), Technology (-1.65%), and Consumer Cyclical (-1.17%).
While AI is causing some short-term pain in the labor market (accounting for about 7% of layoff plans in January), history suggests this “creative destruction” eventually leads to higher productivity and new job types.
Don’t let the “dystopian” headlines scare you out of a good plan. We are seeing a healthy broadening of the market. While Tech cools off, Industrials and Materials are picking up the slack.
Recommended Strategy: Stay Unleveraged: Given the volatility (VIX is hovering around 18-20), keep the leverage in the shed.
Stay disciplined, watch your stops, and don’t risk more than 0.25% per trade.
Earnings and Economic Events
This week, the following companies report earnings:
Friday’s jobs report is the main event, with a projected plunge to 60K payrolls likely to trigger market volatility.
Watch the early-week PMI prints to see if we find any support before the big Friday data.
High Probability Trades
You can find my full watchlist here:
https://www.tradingview.com/watchlists/322471659/
Ticker: HL
HL fits all our criteria.
Since January 30, HL has been building this base.
They have relatively good earnings, and there is enough liquidity for big funds to enter, as the avg dollar volume is $689M. The RS is at 99.
It respects the MA and is above all the MA lines.
The only thing I don’t like is that I’d prefer the price to be more compressed. Also, in recent months, breakouts have not performed well, with most of them gapping up and then fading, exactly like NVDA has done in the last 3 days.
I will monitor this stock at the open on Monday. I’ve set an alert at $24.91, and if it opens green in the first 5 minutes, I plan to take a position with a stop at the previous low at $24.10.
Ticker: STX
STX, similar to WDC and SNDK, has started to form a mini base where the price is compressing.
The reason I chose STX is because I believe the base/price action is cleaner and more predictable than the other two, which move a bit more violently.
Like all the others, we have strong demand, profitability, and potential, thanks to AI, for demand to accelerate beyond the supply.
The play is simple: I want to buy into strength. I do not want to buy into weakness.
There are two possibilities from here: STX opens high and clears the $420 level to retest the high, or it goes below the $390 level, a level at which I do not want to buy because I am not trying to buy a falling knife.
Sometimes what happens is that the price drops below a key level to shake out everyone from their positions, as they know most will have their stops there, and then it starts to rally. (This setup is called an undercut and rally, it usually happens at the 20 and 50 MA).
Ticker: FIG
This is still a discretionary trade, because it doesn’t fall under our strategy. This is not a momentum stock. However, I want to mention it because I will be taking this trade soon.
There are multiple things that make me want to try to buy a few tickers from the Packaged Software industry.
We are seeing a massive divergence right now:
Semiconductors are holding the line on fundamentals.
Software is getting crushed, with the subsector down 30% from its peak.
The fear is that AI “agents” will make legacy software obsolete. While I think that’s an overreaction (I see these tools as complements rather than replacements), the “software vs. semis” performance gap is now at an extreme.
This usually sets the stage for a tactical “snap-back” rally in the beaten-down software names.
Also, all the visuals created for Freedom Trades are made in Figma, moreover, I personally know many businesses and proffesionals that are switching from Adobe to Figma.
The danger of this trade is being too early, I don’t want that. That’s why I’m okay with the fact that I might miss the beginning of the move. My goal is to catch a portion of the move, not the entire move.
As always, keep an eye on Discord, as I will announce if or when I enter.
Other interesting tickers you should keep an eye on:
FTAI, ARM, ONDS, KTOS, ZETA
I encourage you, if you’re already a PRO member, you can upgrade your membership on the Discord server (at no extra cost) and get access to a fully private server dedicated to PRO members, for networking, trade ideas, insights, and alerts. (I am wayyy more active there than the Substack chat)
Connect PRO account with discord server
P.S.: The email you use on Discord must be the same as the one on Substack.
Please be aware that there are scammers impersonating me. Remember that I will never contact you personally, nor will I ask you to sign up with different brokers/extra services. Never share any personal information!! Please stay safe. Always double check or ask in the public chat if you are not sure that it is me or if a link is safe.
All the positions I take during the week can be found on the Discord server or in the Freedom Trades private chat.
“One trade closer to freedom”
Vladislav