Trades That Could Turn Small Accounts Into Big Ones in 2026
High Probability Trades for 22-26 December 2025 | Edition 22
This is the current value of my swing trading account.
Attention: since I live in Switzerland, the currency is set in CHF (which means if you convert it to USD, the amount is higher).
To better understand the strategy we are following and not to buy blindly without any context, please read and analyze my strategy carefully:
Right now, these are my positions:
Weekly Market Direction
Dear traders,
Let’s be honest.
This week looked messy on the surface.
Global headlines were flying. The Bank of Japan just raised rates to the highest level in 30 years. U.S. indexes finished mixed. Small caps lagged. Tech hesitated. People started asking if something was “wrong.”
But when you zoom out and look at the full picture, the message is much calmer.
What the market did
U.S. stocks ended the last full trading week of the year mixed.
Small caps underperformed.
The Dow slipped.
The S&P went basically nowhere.
The Nasdaq edged higher.
Early in the week, stocks sold off as tech weakness carried over from the prior week. Valuations in AI were questioned. Spending expectations got debated. Add in mixed economic data and you had nervous positioning.
Then inflation data dropped.
And the tone shifted.
By week’s end, markets had largely stabilized, helped by cooler CPI numbers and strong earnings from Micron, which reminded everyone that AI isn’t a story, it’s still a business cycle.
Now let’s talk about what our model sees
This matters more than headlines.
Market sentiment sits at 73.That’s aggressive.
The recommended strategy stays clear:
70–90% exposure is justified, with controlled leverage if your system allows it.
Short-, medium-, and long-term trends on the S&P 500 are all pointing higher.
Short-term signals across the Nasdaq, Dow, and Russell are constructive. Small caps aren’t leading, but they’re not breaking either.
Volatility and breadth are doing exactly what you want
The VIX is sitting around 14–15.
Market breadth is neutral but improving. Participation is broad enough to support higher prices. And the big tell remains intact: stocks continue to outperform bonds by a wide margin.
That’s risk-on behavior.
Jobs data looks confusing, but the trend is clear
November added 64,000 jobs, beating expectations.
October showed a sharp loss, but most of that came from government payrolls rolling off due to shutdown-related distortions.
Unemployment rose to 4.6%, the highest in four years.
Inflation cooled
Headline CPI dropped to 2.7%.
Core inflation fell to 2.6%, the slowest pace since 2021.
Markets liked it.
But let’s be clear. Some of this data was distorted by the government shutdown, especially housing inflation, which likely cooled more on paper than in reality.
So no, inflation isn’t “solved.”
But yes, the direction still matters.
Wage growth slowed to 3.5%, the lowest since 2021.
That gives the Fed room to stay dovish.
Bonds quietly did their job
Treasuries moved higher as yields fell after the Fed’s prior cut. High yield held up well, especially after CPI cooled.
Nothing dramatic.
But bonds are once again doing what they’re supposed to do: provide income and stability.
Sector rotation tells the real story
Over the past week, leadership came from basic materials, consumer cyclicals, and healthcare. Energy and real estate lagged.
Zoom out to the past month and it gets more interesting.
Basic materials are up nearly 10%.
Financials, industrials, cyclicals, and communications are all strong.
Tech is positive, just no longer carrying the entire market on its back.
High Probability Trades
In the last edition, I called out Aerospace stocks before they actually exploded.
If you listened, you’ve probably made a lot of money by now.
Out of curiosity, I checked how some of the tickers I shared here performed over the last two weeks, and the results are wild:
RKLB +39%, PL +48%, SNDK +15%.
You can copy my full watchlist for next week here.
What I believe is happening right now is that high-beta momentum stocks are attempting to retest previous highs.
This move will likely decide whether the current pullback continues or if we start pushing higher toward the end of the year.
There are a lot of opportunities at very attractive prices.
Most high-beta momentum stocks are down 40–50%, some even 60% from their highs.
I see this as the moment to carefully start building positions, or even add more size, so you’re positioned as a winner when markets start to scream and explode.
Here are a few names I’d play from here.
Ticker: LUNR
It looks like Intuitive Machines is a top contender for NASA’s Lunar Terrain Vehicle contract, potentially valued at $4.6 billion, with initial deliveries expected to generate meaningful revenue.
Naturally, the market reacted.
The stock jumped 37% in a single day and managed to break out of the range it had been stuck in.
That said, it’s clearly too overextended to buy right now, even if we get another green day on Monday.
The real setup comes if the stock retests the $13 level, which was previous resistance and now needs to act as support.
If price holds that level and avoids making lower lows, that would be a valid entry.
From there, a momentum move of up to 67% is possible if the stock decides to retest the prior top.
Ticker: NBIS
Guys, as you know, I’ve been shouting about this ticker for weeks and I plan to ride it through the end of 2026, depending on how it performs, obviously.
Just on Friday, NBIS was up 14%.
If it manages to break out of this falling wedge, we could see a sharp explosion higher, followed by a pullback.
That pullback is exactly where I’ll be adding back to my position.
I’ll keep writing about this ticker in the next editions until I believe it’s too overextended to buy and the train leaves without you.
Ticker: ONDS
There are a lot of things I like about ONDS.
Volume is increasing, it’s very volatile (be careful here, it’s a double-edged sword), and it’s been trading in a tight range for several days.
At the same time, since early November, it has been printing higher highs.
This is how I’d play it:
I’d either wait for price to come into the buy zone around the 50-day SMA, or I’d take a position right on a breakout from the range, using a tight stop.
The goal would be to catch the retest and a potential breakout that pushes the stock into price discovery.
Ticker: SNDK
It’s the exact same pattern as ONDS.
These tickers held up extremely well during the November drawdown, which tells me they want to run even higher.
We’re still in price discovery mode, so it’s impossible to make a precise estimate of where the top might be.
Because of that, I recommend using the 10-EMA as your guide.
Once you’re in profit and the stock closes below the 10-EMA, just sell the position.
Other important tickers you should keep an eye on:
VOYG , KTOS (same pattern as SNDK) AMD, AVAV, RR
Important links to read and understand:
🟢How to define whether a setup is A+, A, or B. (Click here)
Context
Check the chart watermark to identify the analysis timeframe.
The gray/blue zone marks support and resistance.
The slim blue lines are trend lines
The moving averages used are 200 EMA, 50 EMA, 20 EMA, and 10 EMA.
The 200 EMA is the most important for trend direction.
The 10 EMA is used for exits, if you are in profit and the price closes below the 10 EMA on a daily close, exit the position. (wait for EOD before closing)
You are free to choose/decide when to take profits, but the most important is to place your stop loss at -10% (from entry price / avg price if you dont enter with full size).
For an A+ setup, you can extend it to -15%, but never let a position go beyond that.
Important: That 15% refers to your position size, not your total capital. You should never risk more than 3% of your total capital on any single trade.
I encourage you, if you’re already a PRO member, you can upgrade your membership on the Discord server (at no extra cost) and get access to a fully private server dedicated to PRO members, for networking, trade ideas, insights, and alerts.
Connect PRO account with discord server
P.S.: The email you use on Discord must be the same as the one on Substack.
All the positions I take during the week can be found on the Discord server or in the Freedom Trades private chat.
If you get an error or can’t make it work, message me privately, I might be able to help you out. 🙂
“One trade closer to freedom”
Vladislav